First poll results with Chris Hipkins as PM revealed

By 1news.co.nz

He’s been prime minister less than a week, and so far, it seems New Zealanders are willing to give Chris Hipkins a go.

That’s according to the latest 1News Kantar Public Poll, which shows Hipkins, sworn in on January 25, has attracted a net approval rating of 36 points, while Christopher Luxon trails on nine points.

The poll has also shown a surge of support for Labour, with the party gaining five percentage points on its last poll result. It now sits at 38%, which translates to 49 seats if Rawiri Waititi holds Waiariki. That is Labour’s best result since January 2022.

It’s still not enough to govern alone, however, and Hipkins and Luxon were neck-and-neck on preferred prime minister stakes, with Hipkins on 23% and Luxon on 22%. The poll was run from January 25 to 29 and surveyed 1008 eligible voters.

National is at 37%, down one percentage point.

The Act party is down one point at 10%, the Greens on 7%, down two points, New Zealand First on 2%, down two, and Te Pāti Māori on 1%, down one.

Translating to seats in parliament, centre-right parties would have 60 seats, while centre-left parties would have 58.

Presuming Rawiri Waititi holds the Waiariki electorate, Te Pāti Māori would have two seats.

Rawiri Waititi: Te Pāti Māori will decide next govt

Sixty-one seats are needed for a majority, meaning Te Pāti Māori could hold the balance of power. If the party did not wish to enter a coalition agreement with any party, it could result in a hung parliament.

However, Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi said it wouldn’t happen.

“It won’t be a hung parliament, Te Pāti Māori will be deciding who the government is.

“Act is an absolute no to Te Pāti Māori and if National don’t start changing their tune, it’s an absolute no for us as well.”

He said that was because Act had indicated it would remove ministries like those for women and Pacific peoples.

That was Act’s alternative budget – released in May last year – that would also abolish the Māori Development Minister, the Ministry for Ethnic Communities and the Human Rights Commission.

Waititi said there would be “hard negotiations” with Labour or National but bottom lines would include closing the gap between the rich and poor, ensuring a “Tiriti-centric Aotearoa” and “kaitiaki solutions to climate change”.

Waititi said Te Pāti Māori would be “going hard” to secure all seven Māori seats and he was confident it would expand from two MPs this term.

“We have no desire to be in government … but that will have to go back to our voters.”

Refocus is working – Hipkins

The last 1News Kantar Public Poll in December last year had National on 38%, Labour on 33%, Act on 11% and the Green Party on 9%.

On Monday, Hipkins told 1News New Zealanders had sent the message to the Government they wanted it to focus on “top of mind” issues like the cost of living.

He said he was encouraged by the 1News Kantar Public Poll results but there was still “a lot of work ahead”.

“New Zealanders, I think, know what to expect from me. They’ll expect someone who’s fairly straight up, fairly honest.”

He said poll results would not shift his focus from governing the country and responding to the public’s call for a refocus.

Hipkins said New Zealanders would see “progress” on key issues like the cost of living “in the coming weeks and months”.

He said the public’s reaction to him face-to-face had been “positive so far”.

Country needs ‘a turnaround’ – Luxon

National Party leader Christopher Luxon said it was “not unexpected that a new leader gets a bounce” in polls.

“What New Zealanders really want is a government that will get things done, and that’s what I’m very fixated and focused on.

“It’s going to be a very close election. Nothing changes too much for us.”

He said what was happening in Wellington was “not really that interesting” and people wanted politicians to focus on them and “getting things sorted”.

“The country needs a big turnaround.”

He said the National Party had “come a long way” over the past year.

Asked if he would work with Te Pāti Māori to form a government, Luxon said Te Pāti Māori had “made their decision they don’t want to work with us”.

Asked if Te Pāti Māori were to change its position, Luxon said he was “not going to get into those calculations right now”. He said he would also “not get into” ruling Te Pāti Māori in or out of future coalition negotiations.

‘Worrying for National’ – political commentator

Former National Party staffer and political commentator Ben Thomas said Hipkins’ approval rating was a reflection of his reputation as a “Mr Fix-It” and a “really capable minister”.

“It also shows that he really nailed the messaging. Labour have done exactly what they needed to: talked about pivoting towards to more middle class [and] working class concerns, cost of living, and getting away from those issues that they feel are a distraction.”

Thomas said there was now a risk for Hipkins to deliver what he had promised, and his low disapproval rating reflected that he hadn’t yet done anything to put voters offside – but the longer he was in office, the more of a risk that was.

Thomas said the poll result would be “worrying for National”.

“They have to sharpen up not just what they’re against [but] what is their alternative to the Labour government.”

Voters also seem more optimistic about the economic outlook than they were at the end of last year, with 28% saying they believed the economy would improve in the next 12 months, compared to 18% in the last 1News Kantar Public Poll.

Key points:

Labour up five percentage points since last poll to 38%

National down 1% to 37%

Presuming Rawiri Waititi wins Waiariki, that translates to Labour – 49 seats and National – 47 seats

Chris Hipkins’ approval rating 46%, disapproval 10%

Christopher Luxon’s approval rating 43%, disapproval 34%

On economic outlook, 28% said the economy would be better in 12 months – a 10% improvement since the last poll in December.

See the full results and methodology here.

Between January 25 and 29, 2023, 1008 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (508) and online, using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. For party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, education level and ethnic identification. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel.