Labour support drops again; Hipkins, Luxon neck and neck, according to latest 1News-Verian poll

By RNZ.co.nz

Support for Labour has crashed into the twenties, with National and ACT on course to win the election, according to the 1News-Verian poll.

Chris Hipskin (L), Christophher Luxon

It shows the Labour party has dropped four points to 29 percent.

National is up two points to 37 percent, while ACT is up one on 13 percent.

Those numbers would give the right bloc 65 seats in Parliament – enough to comfortably form a government.

Support for the Green Party has increased two points to 12 percent and Te Pāti Māori remains steady on three.

New Zealand First is up one point to 4 percent – just shy of the threshold to enter Parliament.

It was also Chris Hipkins’ worst result in the preferred prime minister stakes since he took on the top job.

The Labour leader is down three points to 21 percent.

Support for National’s Christopher Luxon remains steady on 20 percent, the same result as the July poll.

ACT leader David Seymour was once again third in preferred prime minister ratings, with 6 percent, down 1 percent on the last poll.

NZ First leader Winston Peter was on 3 percent.

Translated to seats in Parliament, Monday’s poll meant National could comfortably form a government with ACT – National’s 48 seats and ACT’s 17 seats total 65 seats.

Labour, on the other hand, would have 37 seats. Combined with the Greens’ 15 seats and Te Pāti Māori’s three seats – provided Rawiri Waititi retains Waiariki – the total for the left bloc was just 55.

Each bloc must aim for a majority of 61 seats.

ACT’s 17 seats would be the best result the party has ever had in an election.

The Greens’ 15 seats would also surpass its best result of 14 MPs, which it achieved in the 2011 and 2014 elections.

The new 1News Verian poll was conducted between 12-16 August.

In the lead-up, Labour announced its GST-free fruit and vegetables plans; National said it would ban cellphones in schools, both major parties announced their transport plans, ACT promised big cuts to MBIE staffing and projects and the Greens outlined their climate-focused clean power policy.

The last 1News-Verian poll on 17 July showed National and ACT could form a government, with National on 35 percent and ACT on 12 percent, giving them a combined 61 seats in Parliament.

That poll also showed Labour (33 percent), the Greens (10 percent) and Te Pāti Māori – assuming they won an electorate – would have picked up 59 seats, falling short of the necessary majority.

The latest poll surveyed 1002 eligible voters by mobile phone and online. The maximum sampling error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer were excluded from the data on party support.

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